[WarInEur] More on France 1940

[SGMINFO at aol.com]

In a message dated 16/01/2008 03:50:39 GMT Standard Time,  
kelvinwstevens at optusnet.com.au writes:

What if  the war was to continue into the late 40's or even later? Both sides 
runout of  manpower etc?



With regards to the 'numbers game' interpolation is easy, extrapolation  
isn't.
 
We have the broad numbers at several points throught the war, spanning the  
gaps is relatively simply, but outside these parameters you are in serious  
trouble. Even in the latter war period there are problems with the united  
states, if the war had gone badly and was lasting into 1946-57 the  the major US 
production decisions would have been altered, little research  is available for 
these  'what if' events as Allied production was already  winding down due to  
a lack of 'perceived future needs'.
 
On the German side, quite destinct to the  rapidly collapsing  situation due 
to bombing Speer himself indicated that despite all efforts after  the summer 
of 1944, the production game was already over with the loss of major  sources 
of key industrial raw materials, all that was left was the slow  unwinding of 
the spring as the system ground to a halt, key materials for vital  military 
alloys (see the collapse of the reliability of the jet engine  programme, and 
problems in sourcing key ingredients for xplosives for munitions.  are good 
examples). 
 
The calculations are dependent on so many imponderables that forecasting  
production programmes is largely reduced to near speculation, which makes such  
'pitches' merely guesswork, putting us in a very problematic situation.
 
In terms of manpower most were in serious trouble from the beginning of  
1944, but for the Germans 1945 was a darker year with the actual sinews of war  
disappearing, particularly coal, as the transportation system collapsed.
 
It is possible to see the British and Germans beginning to look for an  
alternative way out of the war in December 1945, as they began to face the  
unpalatable problems of being unable to feed the war machines that they had  created, 
which now threatened to consume the last reserves of manpower and  materials 
that were needed for a post war future for their respective  countries.
 
-|steve|-



   
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