[WarInEur] RE: WarInEur Digest, Vol 39, Issue 35

Fri Oct 26 19:17:44 EDT 2007

I wouldn't say that Bob and I really disagreed at all.  We we're working from different assumptions.  I was assuming that the game was being played per SPI rules and without "any" post publication enhancements. 

Therefore, I didn't consider the Surface Sortie as an available option.  I also presumed the production system was designed with historic U-boat builds in mind.  I was also guided by the production percentage limitations.

What I wanted to determine was if the German player could build the 1940 OOB (on map plus in progress builds) and then subsequently the 1941 OOB (on map plus in progress builds when starting from the 1939 OOB.

The Germans need two things: production points and time.  I developed a spreadsheet that allowed me to work backwards IE placing the long lead time items first and then filling in those with short cycles costs.  I was able to discover the correct build sequence, but also learned two other things in the process. 

One, the Axis player cannot use all of his IRP in 39.  He needs to  save about 1/3 of them for 1941 to convert the 1-5kg arriving from production and he needs to use about 1/3 of his 1-5kg as Cadre to start the immediate production of new 6-5's.

Two no matter how much you massage the data the Germans are short over 200 production points.  In other words, you can't get from point A to Z because the math won't add up.

Well actually, I found out a couple of other things as well.  There is an AMPH recycling in the 1940 scenario after use in Norway.  However, given its date of appearance, it had to be part of the 1939 OOB or an in progress build because there is insufficient time available to build it from scratch.  I would recommend adding it to the builds in progress.

I also determined that SPI designers expected both Axis and Allies to fly their AP almost every turn. Otherwise the numbers of AP available for both sides greatly exceeded the scenario deployments for subsequent years.

Not sure how to fix this.  Maybe we institute a rule that requires all players to fly at least one or two turns per cycle so that the necessary AP casualties occur and the Axis don't build out the box in 42.

As Karl Gaarsoe noted, once the Axis build out the AP box, they can devote their entire production to ground forces which completely skews the end game for the Soviets.

As Bob noted the in progress u-boat builds in the 1941 scenario  are way in excess of those required to maintain a neutral or historic reinforcement schedule.  I recommed deleting seven of them but adding three into the early cycles of the game.

My best solution to the production point shortfall is to increase the production multiple for the first six cycles of 1941.  This does make up the production shortfall and allows the Germans to field the historic forces for Barbarossa.

Kent

Kent

----- Original Message ----- 
  From: Wardall Clark 
  To: warineur at mailman.halisp.net 
  Sent: Friday, October 26, 2007 11:57 AM
  Subject: [WarInEur] RE: WarInEur Digest, Vol 39, Issue 35

  Kent and I were unable to come to a common figure for the
  shortfall, largely because we were not trying to build the exact
  same OOB. We do agree that unless the Axis Sorties his SURF units agresssively the initial u-boats are too few to hold the 
  UK to the historic reenforcement rate.  We also agree that the in-process production for the 1941 WIE campaign scenario
  involves U-boat overkill and IRF underkill. 

  We parted ways on the following. The Axis has to rush to
  get the 1940 France Infantry ready to Go. This rush required 
  all of the initial IRP.  It is cheaper to Build a 1-5 into a 6-5
  than to remake a used IRP. If the AXIS simply operates with 
  less forces in 1940 (i.e with more 1-5s on the map) then 
  the points saved by using builds are available for the 1941 OOB
  Likewise if the Axis makes 1 SURF sortie and it is destroyed that is one  U-boat that doesn't die but with a double size reduction in UK production/reinforcement. If the SURF survives to Sortie again then there are two double-sized reductions for the same cost of a U-boat. 

  By cutting all the right corners and if air casualties are modest 
  (HA HA see the RW battle of Britain.) The shortfall is substantial without being crippling for WitW. 

  I tend to agree with Karl that the Axis very nearly makes it
  however, If it does so then the cupboard will be quite bare in 
  terms of additional production for the opening 10 cycles of 
  a 7/41 invasion.  The initial force is mostly on the Board, but 
  the listed follow up forces cannot be finished until well into 1942.  

  BOB
  > From: Karl Gaarsoe wrote re: the "problem" of building the German Barbarossa Invasion force.
  > 
  > I did this as a paper exercise a couple of times, IIRC, you can (sort of) get there.
  > 1. Assume "Historical" (Deduct 10%) U-Boat Production.
  > 2. Build MAXIMUM AP (50%) appearing through the end of Summer, 1940 (Clear Weather), therafter drop to MINIMUM (30%)? investment in the Luftwaffe.
  > 3. Use all the Intial Fifty (50) Infantry Replacements to flip the KG in the West to Full Strength.
  > 4. Pay attention to the need to build the "correct" number of 10-8 & 8-8; What is it, cycle 2/41 is the last cycle you can build to have them available?
  > 5. Part of the "Strategic Reserve" will still be on the Spiral (Twenty 6-5, etc).
  > You can sort of get there, but it is very tight.

  > From: "Kent & Sue Haunschild" <kentsue at cox.net>
  > I've run the exercise on a spreadsheet a couple of times. Unfortunately, 10% U-boat spending won't keep the Allies on a historic reinforcement schedule. The problem is exaborated if the Allied production option is choosen because it comes bundled with the Optional U-boat warfare as well which requires more U-boat spending to keep the Allied reinforcements at a historic level. 
  Anyway, the end result is that the Axis lack about 250 production points if the want to build, enough U-boats to keep the Allies on a historical reinforcement schedule, build the required AP, and still field the German OOB that was on the board for Barbarossa in 41. 

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