[WarInEur] RE: WarInEur Digest, Vol 39, Issue 35

[Wardall Clark]

Kent and I were unable to come to a common figure for the
shortfall, largely because we were not trying to build the exact
same OOB. We do agree that unless the Axis Sorties his SURF units agresssively the initial u-boats are too few to hold the 
UK to the historic reenforcement rate.  We also agree that the in-process production for the 1941 WIE campaign scenario
involves U-boat overkill and IRF underkill. 
 
We parted ways on the following. The Axis has to rush to
get the 1940 France Infantry ready to Go. This rush required 
all of the initial IRP.  It is cheaper to Build a 1-5 into a 6-5than to remake a used IRP. If the AXIS simply operates with 
less forces in 1940 (i.e with more 1-5s on the map) then 
the points saved by using builds are available for the 1941 OOB
Likewise if the Axis makes 1 SURF sortie and it is destroyed that is one  U-boat that doesn't die but with a double size reduction in UK production/reinforcement. If the SURF survives to Sortie again then there are two double-sized reductions for the same cost of a U-boat. 
 
By cutting all the right corners and if air casualties are modest 
(HA HA see the RW battle of Britain.) The shortfall is substantial without being crippling for WitW. 
 
I tend to agree with Karl that the Axis very nearly makes it
however, If it does so then the cupboard will be quite bare in 
terms of additional production for the opening 10 cycles of 
a 7/41 invasion.  The initial force is mostly on the Board, but 
the listed follow up forces cannot be finished until well into 1942.  
 
BOB
> From: Karl Gaarsoe wrote re: the "problem" of building the German Barbarossa Invasion force.> > I did this as a paper exercise a couple of times, IIRC, you can (sort of) get there.> 1. Assume "Historical" (Deduct 10%) U-Boat Production.> 2. Build MAXIMUM AP (50%) appearing through the end of Summer, 1940 (Clear Weather), therafter drop to MINIMUM (30%)? investment in the Luftwaffe.> 3. Use all the Intial Fifty (50) Infantry Replacements to flip the KG in the West to Full Strength.> 4. Pay attention to the need to build the "correct" number of 10-8 & 8-8; What is it, cycle 2/41 is the last cycle you can build to have them available?> 5. Part of the "Strategic Reserve" will still be on the Spiral (Twenty 6-5, etc).> You can sort of get there, but it is very tight.
> From: "Kent & Sue Haunschild" <kentsue at cox.net>> I've run the exercise on a spreadsheet a couple of times. Unfortunately, 10% U-boat spending won't keep the Allies on a historic reinforcement schedule. The problem is exaborated if the Allied production option is choosen because it comes bundled with the Optional U-boat warfare as well which requires more U-boat spending to keep the Allied reinforcements at a historic level. 
Anyway, the end result is that the Axis lack about 250 production points if the want to build, enough U-boats to keep the Allies on a historical reinforcement schedule, build the required AP, and still field the German OOB that was on the board for Barbarossa in 41. 
 
 
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