[WarInEur] RE: conservative play.

[Wardall Clark]

Kent had commented, > > The draw back to a more conservative game is it will completely screw the time line. For better or worse the Axis have to set the pace of the game or the simulation breaks down. If the Axis player is forced to divert his forces to defend across the board then he will have insufficient force to execute the historic attacks. The other side of a conservative game is the over-production by all three sides leading to an Axis win, if for no other reason than the Allies/Soviets cannot attrite them fast enough once the end game is reached. Maybe, if the Allies/Soviet save their surprises for the end they can gang up on the Germans but I doubt it.
I am not sure what sort of conservatism the rule would promote.  At present, certain operations are never tried because the chance of success
is too small in relation to the potential gains.  Surprise raises the probability of success.   This revises the estimates that the other side makes about 
what is safe from enemy action and what is not.    Kent's post suggests that the final result is diversion of resources away from the main action toward
cover-your-ass deployments. 
 
Perhaps, but perhaps the game will involve some hair-raising gambles that simply wouldn't possibly work without the Surprise option.  
 
Or perhaps, given the increased risk of a counter-offensive, more ground units and less air units will be built in the early years of the war, so that adequate reserves are just behind the front.
 
Or maybe Offensives will start before overwhelming force is in place, since you can do more with less (the Irwin Rommel effect.) 
 
BOB 
 
 
 
 It shows that the rule expands the capabilities of your opponent in ways > that can create disasters. This means that military operations have to conducted a great deal more > conservatively than is traditional for a war game because you seldom can be certain of what the other > side's capabilities are. > ****************************************
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