[WarInEur] Bulgaria and Romania (Not So fast)
Don Lazov
dlazov at comcast.net
Mon Jun 4 20:39:37 EDT 2007
First of all. Bulgaria was considered a Soviet area of influence. And
Hungary would have remained neutral until or if Russia invaded her.
The is from TEM 23 Operation Groza
The greatest land campaign in history started on 6 July 1941, when the
Red Army launched "Operation Groza" ("Thunderstorm"), the massive
surprise attack on Hitler's Germany.
Say what?
In a book first published in England the ex-Soviet GRU (Army Military
Intelligence) officer Viktor Suvorov argues that the above sentence
describes what "should" have happened. In Icebreaker: Who Started the
Second World War (New York: Viking Penguin Group, 1990, $22.95), Suvorov
examines the evidence that Stalin planned from before the war started in
1939 to attack Germany, once it was sufficiently weakened from fighting
the Allies. Further, Suvorov contends that Stalin maneuvered Hitler into
actions that would make his own attack more certain of success.
Suvorov has the advantage of having served in the archives of the Soviet
military intelligence establishment. He has also consulted many of the
Soviet articles and memoirs published since the war to bolster his
arguments.
Especially interesting is Suvorov's evidence of Soviet military
preparations for an attack on Germany in 1941:
1. The destruction of virtually all the prewar fortifications along the
borders. Also, the almost complete lack of new defensive construction in
the newly occupied territories of Poland and the Baltic States.
2. The detailed prewar planning by the staffs of the frontier military
districts (MDs) and armies, which kept them busy literally day and night
for months before the war. When the Germans attacked, the frontier
armies had no defense plans. What, then, were they planning for?
3. The forming of five parachute corps, which Suvorov points out are
"offensive formations" only. He further asserts that the 6th to the 10th
Parachute Corps were already starting to form before 22 June 1941 (but
gives no reference for this assertion).
4. The training of the 9th Separate Special Rifle Corps in the Crimea in
amphibious assault operations before June 1941. Suvorov claims this was
for attacks on the Romanian coast, in conjunction with the Danube
Flotilla and Black Sea Fleet.
5. The organization of the armies of the western MDs. Suvorov points out
that each had at least one Mechanized Corps assigned. This gave every
army the number of tanks necessary to be designated a "Shock Army"
according to the prewar Soviet doctrinal manuals. He also notes that
both the 6th and 10th Armies in the Kiev and Western MDs were "Heavy
Shock" armies with a cavalry corps and two mechanized corps each. Both
armies were placed in salients: "wedges into German territory".
6. The NKVD border troops were trained in offensive operations. "They
trained to seize bridges crossing the border, not defend them." Suvorov
implies that all the border guards in the western MDs were in fact more
akin to Spetsnaz forces (Special Operations Commandos) than actual
border guards.
Suvorov argues an apparently convincing case. Of course, he also
exhibits classic Intelligence Officer thinking: one step short of
clinical paranoia. Every action MUST be the result of planned
malevolence: nothing that is done is the result of sheer accident,
stupidity, or incompetence. Thus, when the IL-2 Sturmovik attack plane
is built without a rear gunner, to Suvorov that is evidence that Stalin
planned to attack the German Luftwaffe on the ground in a surprise
attack, wiping out the enemy air force before it could get into the air,
and making it unnecessary to defend against German fighters.
In fact, as several Soviet accounts make clear, the original 2-seat IL-2
prototype had "unimpressive takeoff, climb, speed, range, and
longitudinal stability" and the second crewman was removed to bring the
flight characteristics even marginally up to the standards desired. The
official VVS (Soviet Air Force) position was that escort fighters would
protect the Sturmoviks--not that all enemy fighters would be destroyed
on the ground in one massive strike.
I have many other arguments against Suvorov as well. He identifies 12th
Army in the Kiev Special Military District as a "special mountain shock
army" to attack through the Carpathians towards Ploesti. But in June
1941 this army did not have a single rifle division within 80% of full
strength, and its Mechanized Corps (16th) had only 608 tanks on hand out
of 1031. This "special shock army" had no heavy tanks at all, and only
75 out of 420 authorized medium tanks-not exactly prepared for a major
offensive!
In fact, in all the military districts facing Germany in June 1941, the
average rifle division was only about 8000- 9000 men in strength. This
makes them understrength even for the authorized peacetime strength of a
Soviet division. Only in the Leningrad MD, facing Finland, were the
divisions close to authorized peacetime strength for a "12" type
division: 11,985 men. Nowhere does Suvorov say that Stalin intended to
refight the Winter War in 1941!
However, that is not the point of this scenario: Icebreaker is still a
good read, whether you agree that a Soviet offensive was either likely
or possible. Suvorov makes a case that Stalin and the Soviet High
Command could have believed, based on their preparations, that such an
offensive was possible. This implies that such a Soviet attack might
have been launched.
This historical "might-have-been" begs for experimentation in an Europa
setting!
Here then is an alternate start of the greatest land campaign of the
Second World War: "Groza", the Soviet code name for the attack on Nazi
Germany in July 1941. ("Groza" means Thunderstorm-which at least sounds
more martial than "Red Beard" or "Uranus".)
Rule 8--Axis Allies
A. Bulgarian Neutrality
The Axis player may trace supply through Bulgaria, but German ground
units (only) may not enter Bulgaria (except by rail movement) or attack
out of Bulgaria. German air units may not base or stage in Bulgaria, but
may overfly Bulgarian territory. Romanian ground units may not enter
Bulgaria at all, but air units may overfly Bulgaria. ZOCs do not extend
into or out of Bulgaria. If any ground unit moves into Bulgaria,
including a German unit using non-rail movement, it is immediately
interned. Interned units are immediately placed in the replacement pool
and special replacements for them are received, unless they are Romanian.
Soviet units may not enter Bulgaria under any circumstances. If an unit
is required to do so, it is eliminated (interned) and no special
replacements are received.
B. Hungarian Neutrality
The Soviets need not attack Hungary. Hungary will remain neutral until a
Soviet ground unit enters its territory or the Soviets attack a unit
inside Hungary (this includes Soviet air missions against targets in
Hungary.) The Soviets must maintain a unit or a ZOC in every hex
bordering Hungary while it is neutral.
No German units may be deployed in Hungary until it is invaded by the
Soviets.
The Axis player may trace supply through Hungary, but German ground
units (only) may not enter Hungary (except by rail movement) or attack
out of Hungary. German air units may not base or stage in Hungary, but
may overfly Hungarian territory. Slovakian or Romanian ground units may
not enter Hungary at all, but their air units may overfly Hungary. ZOCs
do not extend into or out of Hungary. If any ground unit moves into
neutral Hungary, including a German unit using non-rail movement, it is
immediately interned.
Interned units are immediately placed in the replacement pool and
special replacements are received for them, unless they are Slovakian or
Romanian.
Soviet units may not retreat into neutral Hungary. If a Soviet unit is
required to do so, it is eliminated (interned) and no special
replacements are received.
If the Soviet player no longer has any units adjacent to the Hungarian
border at the beginning of an Axis player turn, Hungary will immediately
join the Axis using Hungarian forces currently in play.
The invasion of Hungary by the Soviets negates all of the above
conditions. In this case, Hungary joins the Axis and begins mobilization
(see the Groza Play Aid Chart for Hungarian Mobilization information).
Ploesti: The Soviets considered Ploesti Germany's economic "Achilles
Heel" and placed enormous emphasis on its capture or destruction to
cripple the German war economy. To reflect this, the Soviet player is
awarded 15 VPs immediately if he owns Ploesti in supply during any
Soviet initial phase. (It is deemed that this would allow the Soviets
enough time to severely damage the facility.)
The Soviet player gains an additional 15 VPs if he owns Ploesti at the
end of the scenario.
Operation Groza Stalin's Thunderstorm
sgminfo wrote:
> Buckley, John D (Dr) wrote:
>> Two Points on Soviet Balkan intriguing by the Soviet player prior to
>> war with Germany:
>> 1. If the USSR invades Romania prior to any significant German
>> presence in the Balkans what happens to Romania? I presume they
>> become an active Axis power, even though they are not usually
>> accessible to the German player until 10/40. It doesn't help much
>> though as the German player can't get to Romania to help (Hungary and
>> Yugoslavia still neutral).
>>
>> 2. More importantly however, if the USSR (now at Limited War) enters
>> Bucharest and forces Romanian surrender, presumably Bulgaria also
>> throws in the towel (rather oddly). But does this constitute the
>> addition of a further 5 Political Points as a violation of Bulgarian
>> neutrality by the Soviet player?
>> I suppose you can rationalise this by arguing that Bulgaria suffers a
>> pro-Soviet coup as the Red Army advances into Bucharest - but what
>> about the Political Point issue?
>>
>> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>
> That is a very good point.
>
> The balkan position is very much complicated by some serious unknowns,
> in the real world.
>
> 1.Can the soviet army make a fight of it? Can Stavka trust the
> efficiency of its own forces.
>
> 2.Are the Rumanians really a pushover?
>
> 3.Will Bulgaria react?
>
> 4.How will the rest of theBalkans react to a now obviously agressive
> and expansionist communist slavic regime apparently hell bent on
> spreading world wide revolution???
>
>
> Most military attaches would have reckoned on direct German military
> intervention being a serious military unknown, despite the hindsight
> that means we all know that the Germans may be hamstrung by the rules
> into a different reaction, and still be unable to directly intervene.
>
> A serious defence of other slavic states against mother russia, could
> well destabilise the Baltic buffer zone, as the Soviets might like to
> look upon hthem
>
> Some of these issues were so difficult to gauge, it probably applied
> the brake of caution to what Stavka had envisioned for action in the area.
> The really massive fear haunting the Soviets would have been the
> allies making common cause with the Germans to renew their war of
> intervention of 1919, truly a nightmare of all wars for the red Army...
>
> Wars are remarkably easy to get into...hellishly difficult to extract
> yourself from...as we all know only too well in modern times.
>
> In game terms ploesti virtually garrantees a German collapse in the
> long term, so tempting that it is difficult to refuse the chalice,
> apparently loaded with hemlok destined for the German palate...
>
> -|steve|-
>
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> ------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
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