[WarInEur] Comment on Attrition

[Kent & Sue Haunschild]

Don, I am afraid your own figures condem your position.


Let's examine your figures for the Russian front which is what concerns me 
the most.
You wrote:
> Despite what Kent has said in the south in the first season I was able to 
> drive to Kharkov and Rostov, granted the panzers were at 50-75% and a lot 
> of the infantry was at 40-50% but the Russians were far worse. Remember 
> that newly created units are not going to arrive at 100% readiness.

Let's assume that the first season ends when the first Mud turn arrives or 
1-11-41.

Furthermore let's assume that all the Soviet units are at 90 % attrition and 
all the German units are at 50% attrition.

Finally let's assume that the Soviets are in supply and that the Germans are 
OOS and in a Soviet ZOC.

What does the math tell us about this situation.

One, the Germans will lose 12% attrition per cycle and the Soviets will gain 
20%.

So, by the end of 41 the average German unit is at 86% attrition (50% + 36%)
(This is a 3% loss per turn for being OOS and in an enemy ZOC. The Germans 
cannot really rotate units at this point because any movement causes 4% 
attrition).

Meanwhile the Soviets have increased from 90% to 30% (90-60%)
(This represents a minimum gain for being in supply but in an enemy ZOC of 5 
% per turn.  By rotating units the Soviets could increase their attrition by 
another 40% minimum so they could be at full strength at the beginning of 
1942).

At this point in the game the Germans have no ZOC (lost it at 75% 
attrition), and cannot stop Soviet units from penetrating any gap in the 
line.

They can move only one hex (lost movement points at 50% attrition) and they 
are OOS so infantry have one movement point and mech units have two.  Even 
retreating back to supply is not an option.

If the Soviets then start attacking at 1:2 odds and accepting the AR option 
they will inflict a further 18% attrition on any Germans units attacked, 
while surrfering a 12% attrition loss on participating units.

Let's assume that every German unit is attacked and every Soviet unit 
participates in an attack on the first turn of cycle 1/41 and that the 
Soviet's accept the attack retreat option in every case.

Now the average German attrition level is more than 99% (86% - 16% for 
defensive combat and -3% for OOS in enemy ZOC) while the average Soviet unit 
is at 58%. (30% - 8% for offenisve combat - 4% for attack retreat)

The Soviets used their attacker retreat option to leave German ZOC and 
therefore repair at 10% per turn. So by 2-2-42 the Russian Army is at 100% 
of face value and the German Army is at less than 99% of face value so a 6-5 
has a defense strength of  0.03  (.06 for 99% attrition and then halved for 
OOS). A 10-8 would have a defense strength of  0.05.  If the Soviet wanted 
to add further insult they could wait to the first turn of Mud when the 
German defense strengths would be halved yet again.

However, it would be pointless to wait.  Whether the effective defense 
strength is 0.03 or 0.05  it will take less than one Soviet combat factor to 
guarantee 12:1 odds and a DE result in the second attack on 3-2-42, a third 
attack on 4-2-42 will eliminate any KGs and thus the entire German army in 
cycle 2 of 42.

Now how reaslistic is this appraisal? Well it depends on the assumptions to 
some extent.  How badly attrited were the German units advance during into 
Russia the Clear weather turns in 41?  Did they retreat back to interior 
supply lines for the first Winter or remain at the historic points of 
advance?

The ability of the Soviets to recover was actually understated in the 
example so they could attack sooner, but the timing of the attacks doesn't 
really matter, because they can recover any attrition caused by the combat 
within two turns and the German attrition is permanent and cumulative. 
Also, their were still three more cycles of Winter and Mud for the Germans 
to endure and if the Soviets didn't destroy them during the snow turns they 
will easily do so during the Mud turns when the German Defense strengths is 
halved yet again.

Anyway, the point of my original post was that while I liked the attrition 
concept, some other rules were going to need to be changed to restore a game 
balance.

I suggested that we may need to eliminate some of the kludge rules that were 
inserted to insure Soviet survival to insure German survival when playing 
with attrition.