[WarInEur] Notes about variable weather.

[Wardall Clark]

For War in the East. you really can't use variable weather for the following reason, the victory conditions assume the historical campaign seasons. Normal, (i.e better than historical) weather in 1941 or 1942 is a handicap to the Soviet player.-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------In War in Europe, in which there is more or less free set up,  and in which the Players can jump off major offensives ahead or behind the historical schedule, it would seem that we want to revert to a standard length for the Campaign season with some uncertainty at the edges. The current rule not only allows for a considerable extension of the clear season due to lucky rolls, but also for intermittent of weather. In my post I made note CLEAR, MUD, and SNOW are actually just as much ground conditions as they are atmospheric ones.  AS such, certain patterns make no sense. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------> 2) Given the nature of MUD (i.e the results of either continuous rain or a snow melt)  It seems to me> that after two CLEAR spring turns it should be impossible to revert without warning to MUD status and >after two fall MUD turns it should be impossible to revert immediately to  CLEAR status (since drying out  would take about a week. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------->3) SNOW doesn't mean snowfall;  it means a persistent hard freeze that partially nullifies the mud, but presents
> equipment maintanence problems not encountered in warmer weather.   Hence it  follows that after two weeks of >SNOW it would be improbable to have a reversion to mud conditions (at least in the Severe Weather zone.) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------I am thus arguing that the current rule for rolling every week should be changed in some way.  At the least, the percentages for one week's roll should depend on the previous week's weather in certain situation. One thing I would not advocate is the immediate switch to a new type of weather the moment a die roll indicates different weather for the week before.  Paul person's transitions (see below) assume a single roll for the whole cycle.  I prefer week by week rolls, because this means that weather prediction is more week to week than month to month and this is closer to the way things were in WWII. > From: "Paul S. Person" <psplists at earthlink.net>> > Cycle	Usual Season	Variable Season>  1	Snow		100% Snow>  2	Snow		100% Snow>  3	Snow		 90% Snow; 10% Mud>  4 	Mud		if cycle 3 was Snow: 70% Mud, 30% Snow> 			otherwise: 100% Mud>  5 	Mud/Clear                 if cycle 4 was Snow: 100% Mud> 			if cycle 4 was Mud: 50% Mud; 50% Clear>  6 	Clear		if cycle 5 was Mud: 80% Clear; 20% Mud>  7 	Clear		100% Clear>  8 	Clear		100% Clear>  9 	Clear		100% Clear> 10 	Clear		90% Clear; 10% Mud> 11 	Mud		if cycle 10 was Clear: 80% Mud, 20% Clear> 			if cycle 10 was Mud: 100% Mud> 12	Snow		if Cycle 11 was Clear: 100% Mud> 			if Cycle 11 was Mud: 80% Snow, 20% Mud> 13	Snow		100% SnowThis leaves open the possibility of alternation between mud and snow or between Clear and Mud over an extended period. If the weather could alternate between Snow and Mud the players could make bets about the weather in the way they deploy during the bad weather turns. The gambling aggressor might pick up several extra hexes if he gets a clear (or SNOW?) turn to finish and exploit attacks made during a MUD week. I like this possibility of inconsistent and possibly  unknown ground conditions because (A) this really did happen from time to time and (B) Operation should not come to an abrupt halt each fall and an equally abrupt start each spring. In particular, a guarantee of good weather known months in advance stretches credulity. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------If there was no such iron-clad guarantee then the players have a choice (1) Time major operation to the week in which unfavorable weather is no longer possible and thus accept a shortened campaign season or (2) gamble that a major operation will not be stymied by an early week or two of unexpected/unhoped for weather. As a play balance measurewe might want to use somewhat different % for each year of the war to cover the periods when variable weather is in effect. -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Because the uncertainty will force a certain about of caution, the actual average campaign season can be the length that Kent recommends:> However, one idea that is still being ignored is that 22 weeks of Clear was> not average.  An average year should be 24 to 26 weeks.  The Germans> essentially got a series of bad rolls on the weather and we are forced to> use it as the default setting.==========================================================================   While I advocate variable endings to the campaign seasons, I do not approve of completely unanticipated changes. My suggestion about "RAIN" essentially come to thus: roll the dice two weeks in advance. This way. the aggressor knows that if he accepts the casualties of attacking during MUD conditions so that the campaign can continue the following week under better conditions--those better conditions are in fact going to occur- he is not making decisions in the dark (meteorologically speaking.) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------The computer could announce a weather condition called RAIN.     RAIN could either have no effect> on ground or Air operations, or effect Air operations only, but without RAIN there could be no MUD the following FALL >week and without RAIN there can be no MUD the following spring week.  With RAIN, there could no transition from> MUD to Clear.  This would give the commanders one  and only one turn's true notice that the campaign seasons will end >or start early. -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------To make things a shade more interesting: RAIN would leave a 10% doubt about the ground conditions the following week:(e.g. Two straight weeks of fall or spring rain create 90% chance for a mud turn after a clear turn or some such rule. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------We seem to agree that variable weather should not allow for months of extra good weather. we seem to agree that it is somethingof a headache to deal with as players. We seem to agree that the current rule isn't really acceptable no that a chance to make a change is upon us. My view is to make it optional when the time comes for the patch to be installed and in the meantime let us remember that the computer is capable of utilizing a more sophisticated algorithm than the sort of tables found on the DG website or listed in yesterdays posts. What is complicated to spell out in a paragraph could still be executed by CWIE at lightning speed so long as all the possible random sequences are accounted for in the instructions -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------BOB in Louisville 
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