Spam: [WarInEur] Thoughts on WIE weather and a vote.

[Paul S. Person]

On Mon, 13 Aug 2007 11:57:17 -0400, you wrote:

You see the title? Notice the "Spam:"? That was provided by Agent,
apparently because of the long, run-on lines and no paragraphing.

On topic, I used variable weather on one of my solitaire playing of
CWIE1 and I agree that something less capricious is needed.  Starting
with Clear, you should have Clear until you have Mud; once you have
Mud, then you should have Mud until you have Snow; once you have Snow,
you should have Snow until you have Mud; once you have Mud, you should
have Mud until you have Clear.  The chart on p 80 of the CWIE1 rules
could be modified to look like this:

Cycle	Usual Season	Variable Season
 1	Snow		100% Snow
 2	Snow		100% Snow
 3	Snow		 90% Snow; 10% Mud
 4 	Mud		if cycle 3 was Snow: 70% Mud, 30% Snow
			otherwise: 100% Mud
 5 	Mud/Clear                 if cycle 4 was Snow: 100% Mud
			if cycle 4 was Mud: 50% Mud; 50% Clear
 6 	Clear		if cycle 5 was Mud: 80% Clear; 20% Mud
 7 	Clear		100% Clear
 8 	Clear		100% Clear
 9 	Clear		100% Clear
10 	Clear		90% Clear; 10% Mud
11 	Mud		if cycle 10 was Clear: 80% Mud, 20% Clear
			if cycle 10 was Mud: 100% Mud
12	Snow		if Cycle 11 was Clear: 100% Mud
			if Cycle 11 was Mud: 80% Snow, 20% Mud
13	Snow		100% Snow

Further adjustments can, of course, be made as desired. Indeed, a
turn-by-turn rather than cycle-by-cycle determination might be
interesting.
>
>Thoughts on WIE weather and a vote:1) No one should know months in advance when the transitions will come, only when they normally come.  A prematurely shortened campaign season is part of the Fog of War.  When playing War in the East it is probably better to have a fixed date so that the Russian player can't luck out in 1941 and the German can't luck out in 1941, 1942 or the winter of 42-43.  In WIE the German gets to pick his starting point and one of the consideration is when can he be assured of sufficient good weather.  Otherwise he could have a lot of units twiddling their thumbs rather than beating up the Brits and Greeks.    I happen to think that it is Very Very Probable that unexpected or unhoped for lousy weather might (a) postpone by a week or even two the start of an offensive for which most of the units are in place, or (b) turn an operation that started well into a temporary disaster that must be salvaged once the weather returns to CLEAR. 2) Given the nature of MUD
>(i.e the results of either continuous rain or a snow melt)  It seems to me that after two CLEAR spring turns it should be impossible to revert without warning to MUD status and after two fall MUD turns it should be impossible to revert immediately to  CLEAR status (since drying out  would take about a week. This leaves open the possibility of alternation between mud and snow for a three or even four week period. 3) SNOW doesn't mean snowfall it means a persistent hard freeze that partially nullifies the mud, but presents equipment maintanence problems not encountered in warmer weather.   Hence it follows that after two weeks of SNOW it would be improbable to have a reversion to mud conditions (at least in the Severe Weather zone.) Therefore I would vote for variable weather with 2 limitations: The players should always have two weeks notice about a potential change. By this I meanthat they should be able to prognosticate some N percent chance of next week's weather once this week's
>is certain., Anything further should be uncertain. The second limitation is that the percentages involved conform to the two limitations above.     If the weather zones are subdivided (and I always assumed that the three Air Fronts represented separate weather fronts anyway.) Then the computer could announce a weather condition called RAIN.  RAIN could either have no effect on ground or Air operations, or effect Air operations only, but without RAIN there could be no MUD the following FALL week and without RAIN there can be no MUD the following spring week.  With RAIN, there could no transition from MUD to Clear.  This would give the commanders one  and only one turn's true notice the campaign seasons will end or start early. Bob Sawyer > ----------------------------------------------------------------------> > Message: 1> Date: Mon, 13 Aug 2007 06:37:01 +1000> From: Jim Martin <sanjac at mac.com> > Bruce,> > So are you saying have an alternate less random weather option? Like have> the
>mud and clear weather in spring randomly start within a couple of weeks> of historical and once it changes, it doesn't randomly revert back?  Same> with Winter - it starts a within a couple of weeks of historical and once it> is winter - or mud - it doesn't go back to clear?> > I like that.  No one knows exactly when mud, clear, or winter weather will> start, but it isn't so random as to destroy the game with unusual results.> Just enough variation to prevent planning with perfect foreknowledge.> > Jim> > > > From: Bruce Denney <jbdenney at swbell.net> > > I do like the players to not know for sure when the weather is going to> > clear or turn bad. But the player trying to plan a long offensive (i.e.> > Germans attacking the USSR ) has a problem. With the standard weather he> > knows he will have 22 weeks of clear weather before mud hits. But with> > variable weather it is "possible" for him to have 32 weeks of clear weather> > (if he gets REAL lucky on die rolls but on the other hand
>he is assured of> > only 12 weeks if all of the rolls go bad.> > > > On average it should be 22 weeks of clear but there is a very strong chance> > if an offensive is launched when the weather clears, as late as all the way> > through the 6th cycle for mud to hit again stopping the offensive in its> > tracks.> > > > As I said I like not knowing when the weather will clear and turn to mud> > again (I hate people who can count exactly how far the Axis supply lines> > will be when mud hits as soon as the first German units cross the border) I> > get the gut feeling that the weather system has too much of a chance of> > killing an offensive.> > > > If you launch the invasion of France on the historical 3/5/40 with a clear> > weather turn you could very well then have 5 straight turns of mud. (50%> > chance on 4/5/40 and 20% chance on each turn of cycle 6) If you attack USSR> > historically (1/7/40 - Also the first possible turn that assures that mud> > will not hit again) it is clearly
>possible to lose up to 4 turns of good> > weather. (just as a historical reference, in 1941 on the Front apporching> > Moscow mud hit on 2/11/1940 and hard freeze really hit on 1/12/41).> > > > IMOHO the weather can stay bad too long and can hit too early. Also the> > chance of having the weather clear and then snap back into mud can> > completely kill an offensive.> > > From: sgm <sgminfo at aol.com>> Precisely,> it has to have some predictability,> or it becomes too much of a lottery...> > On that basis Ike would never have gambled on May for the Invasion...> > The size and depth of the season in the game, does not easily admit to > too much seasonal variation, or the campaign could break down , as the > uncertainty eats away at the (limited) campaigning season. Too much > hangs on the logistics advancing at a critically moderate pace, leaving > no room for lattitude.> > > -|steve|-
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