[WarInEur] Re: Asking for thoughts - Weather

[sgm]

jbdenney at swbell.net wrote:
> I would be curious to know anyone's thoughts on the standard weather system
> as against the variable weather. 
>
>  
>   
Variable weather is always a more realistic imponderable than 
predictable weather.
However, with turns resolving about 1 week of normal time
the capriciousness of weather patterns is a lot less than one would 
initially suspect.

Swings in the weather, although severe on occasions,
are a lot less than the figures would seem to tell.

The autumn rains, for example, may deluge, and mud happens. But how 
quckly does the mess sort itself out on the ground when dry weather 
intervenes in the autumn. Possibly just as important would be the 
average temperatures over a week, rather than the headline rates. A wet 
period followed by two weeks of mild weather, but not sufficiently mild 
to dry the ground would leave mobility fatally compromised.

 On the other hand, a snap cold spell in the midst of mud would serve to 
do much to repair hampered armoured formations almost immediately...

A difficult subject...

Perhaps 3 weeks before the "due date" a decimal die roll, with a 30% 
chance of mud, followed by subsequent turns in mud a 15% chance of 
completing through to winter. With similar rolls at the other end.

Coupled with this, a notification, in the form of a weather bulletin, 
notifying commanders that met forecasts are warning of poor weather,
to ram home the point that you are on borrowed time.

On average weather, over a period of time, at the granularity we employ, 
is not quite so capricious as we think.


Assuming, of course, that the current weather patterns are wildly wrong 
(in terms of too much certainty), thinking that a forward or backward 
movement of 1-2 weeks may be all the variabilty that really happened in 
that decade.


-|steve|-