[WarInEur] On a clear day, you can invade forever

[Hansen]

The weather is either a bit dicey or cut and dry.

You have worked out the worst (12 weeks) and best (32 weeks) of weather, but
I would be interested in what the average would be. So if there is an 80%
chance of clear, then that is .8 weeks of clear.

The real issue is that with the current weather, you either have absolute
predictability or you just have the odds of weather. And both sides have the
same knowledge of weather predictability.

Perhaps the solution is to use the computer to generate a weather forecast.
I know this turns weather, and I have a forecast of the next several weeks.
This could also lead to "weather fronts" which forecast a muddy or clear
May. Included in this could be forecast advantage for one side vs another.
The allies, with weather stations in Iceland, Greenland and ships at sea
reports had much more knowledge of weather likelihood on June 6th than the
Germans.

If I have a pretty good knowledge that the next three weeks will be clear, I
can invade Russia and get what needs getting done, done. But if I have a
pretty good idea that there will be another mud, I may wait.

So perhaps it boils down to once it clears, it is very likely to stay clear
and once it muds up/freezes, it is very likely to stay that way.

Bruce Write:
I would be curious to know anyone's thoughts on the standard weather system
as against the variable weather. 

 

I do like the players to not know for sure when the weather is going to
clear or turn bad. But the player trying to plan a long offensive (i.e.
Germans attacking the USSR ) has a problem. With the standard weather he
knows he will have 22 weeks of clear weather before mud hits. But with
variable weather it is "possible" for him to have 32 weeks of clear weather
(if he gets REAL lucky on die rolls but on the other hand he is assured of
only 12 weeks if all of the rolls go bad.

 

On average it should be 22 weeks of clear but there is a very strong chance
if an offensive is launched when the weather clears, as late as all the way
through the 6th cycle for mud to hit again stopping the offensive in its
tracks.

 

As I said I like not knowing when the weather will clear and turn to mud
again (I hate people who can count exactly how far the Axis supply lines
will be when mud hits as soon as the first German units cross the border) I
get the gut feeling that the weather system has too much of a chance of
killing an offensive.

 

If you launch the invasion of France on the historical 3/5/40 with a clear
weather turn you could very well then have 5 straight turns of mud. (50%
chance on 4/5/40 and 20% chance on each turn of cycle 6) If you attack USSR
historically (1/7/40 - Also the first possible turn that assures that mud
will not hit again) it is clearly possible to lose up to 4 turns of good
weather. (just as a historical reference, in 1941 on the Front apporching
Moscow mud hit on 2/11/1940 and hard freeze really hit on 1/12/41).

 

IMOHO the weather can stay bad too long and can hit too early. Also the
chance of having the weather clear and then snap back into mud can
completely kill an offensive.

 

Bruce 

-------------- next part --------------
I would be curious to know anyone's thoughts on the standard weather system
as against the variable weather. 

 

I do like the players to not know for sure when the weather is going to
clear or turn bad. But the player trying to plan a long offensive (i.e.
Germans attacking the USSR ) has a problem. With the standard weather he
knows he will have 22 weeks of clear weather before mud hits. But with
variable weather it is "possible" for him to have 32 weeks of clear weather
(if he gets REAL lucky on die rolls but on the other hand he is assured of
only 12 weeks if all of the rolls go bad.

 

On average it should be 22 weeks of clear but there is a very strong chance
if an offensive is launched when the weather clears, as late as all the way
through the 6th cycle for mud to hit again stopping the offensive in its
tracks.

 

As I said I like not knowing when the weather will clear and turn to mud
again (I hate people who can count exactly how far the Axis supply lines
will be when mud hits as soon as the first German units cross the border) I
get the gut feeling that the weather system has too much of a chance of
killing an offensive.

 

If you launch the invasion of France on the historical 3/5/40 with a clear
weather turn you could very well then have 5 straight turns of mud. (50%
chance on 4/5/40 and 20% chance on each turn of cycle 6) If you attack USSR
historically (1/7/40 - Also the first possible turn that assures that mud
will not hit again) it is clearly possible to lose up to 4 turns of good
weather. (just as a historical reference, in 1941 on the Front apporching
Moscow mud hit on 2/11/1940 and hard freeze really hit on 1/12/41).

 

IMOHO the weather can stay bad too long and can hit too early. Also the
chance of having the weather clear and then snap back into mud can
completely kill an offensive.

 

Bruce 


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End of WarInEur Digest, Vol 37, Issue 19
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