[Consim-l] Littoral Combat Model

[Mircea Pauca]

    Yet another 'official' model coming with a gamer's thinking:
"A Littoral Combat Model for Land-Sea Missile Engagement".
stinet.dtic.mil/oai/oai?&verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA473951

    I think it refers (even if not specifically) to forcing the Straits of 
Hormuz...
However, if I wanted to impress Condi ;-) I'd add refinements at 3 levels:

- Fine tactical/tech (at least from my experience with Harpoon on PC):
the 'bunching behaviour' of missile self-seekers mostly hitting and
overkilling the same exposed ships (more forward, or with bigger radar
reflection) - so a salvo that by this theory should sink the whole fleet
may hit 30-40%. Functional wrecks not yet sunk being hit over and
over again etc. (Or maybe current missiles can communicate to spread
on all targets and avoid bunching and repeat overkills ?). Firing on
land targets may get worse, even if ignoring the civilians around -
that's what the model includes as "area fire" not "direct fire".
    Ignoring luck is a grave mistake too, aggravating the same problem.
One German machine gunner on Omaha Beach 1944 happening to
survive the massive Allied naval fire was credited with ~800 casualties.
    The stock of ammo of both sides can also be a serious limitation,
and whether it can, or not, be transferred from hit to functioning 
launchers.

- Operational: "a ship's a fool to fight a fort" also means the ship can
CHOOSE to attack in one of many other places, while a fort must
wait to fight, or never fight.

- Grand strategic: missiles on land also have a large cost advantage
for similar firepower compared to missile-launching ships. So 'fractional
exchange ratio' should ultimately be expressed in cost. Can Western
high tech procurement and elite recruiting match the mass manufacturing
in Russia/China and low wages plus fanatism of fighting people ?
(I understood a Soviet Ruble was stronger than a US$ for military purposes
in the Cold War ... also reflecting hidden subsidies in their economies)

    Thank you for thinking about this,
    Mircea Pauca, Bucuresti, Romania