[Consim-l] Analysis of Coral Sea

[Brian McCue]

> 1. Indeed --as Mike already noted-- the mechanisms in our humble
> wargames seem at least as good (if not better) as the models used in
> these academic studies;

As one who occupies both worlds, I have long thought the same thing.

> introduction of the "stochastic" element is heavily dependent on the
> standard deviation which was rather arbitrarily set to 1/3.

A weakness of the article.

> Also the "statistics" used to calculate the number of planes that made
> it to the target and the probabilities of a successful intercept of
> those planes that made it that far are just based on this one battle
> only, whereas no-one actually knows if the actual outcome of this one
> battle was something "average" or perhaps something totally one on or
> the other side of the spectrum of all possible outcomes.

Another weakness.

These two weaknesses could both have been addressed by using comparable data from
other early-war aero-naval battles; Midway, Eastern Solomons, Santa Cruz, and
Guadalcanal.

Brian


 
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