[Consim-l] Analysis of Coral Sea

[Karl Moens]

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A very interesting article and two things were very notable:

1. Indeed --as Mike already noted-- the mechanisms in our humble
wargames seem at least as good (if not better) as the models used in
these academic studies;

2.The offense is much more favored over the defense, so perhaps indeed
"The bomber always gets through" as B.H. Liddell Hart once stated.

One other thing which struck my mind is that the model used in this
study is very "plain", i.e. it has few "real world" variables and the
introduction of the "stochastic" element is heavily dependent on the
standard deviation which was rather arbitrarily set to 1/3. Whether this
has any basis in "real life" is anybody"s guess.

Also the "statistics" used to calculate the number of planes that made
it to the target and the probabilities of a successful intercept of
those planes that made it that far are just based on this one battle
only, whereas no-one actually knows if the actual outcome of this one
battle was something "average" or perhaps something totally one on or
the other side of the spectrum of all possible outcomes.


Karl

Mircea Pauca wrote:
>     Even 'official' analysts can be almost
> like gamers ;-) An article especially of interest
> for Markus Stumptner - calibrating a Salvo
> combat model to the Battle of Coral Sea:
> http://www.carleton.ca/csds/working_papers/ArmstrongWP03.pdf
>     By that theory, most of our games use
> stochastic Salvo models, right ?
> especially 'fistful of dice' systems, War at Sea,
> Victory in the Pacific etc.
> 
>     Thank you for thinking about this,
>     Mircea Pauca, Bucuresti, Romania
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